CNX Election Tracker

Bihar Exit Poll 2025

Bihar · 2025 · 243 Total Seats · Majority 122

CNX Exit Poll

🏛 Projected Seats · 243 Total | Majority 122

150 - 170

NDA

70 - 90

Mahagathbandhan

00 - 02

Jan Suraj Party

01 - 03

Others

Seat Distribution Majority: 122 seats

NDA (150 - 170)

Mahagathbandhan (70 - 90)

Jan Suraj Party (00 - 02)

Others (01 - 03)

NDA includes BJP, JD(U), LJP (Ram Vilas) and smaller allies. Mahagathbandhan includes RJD, INC, VIP, Left parties.

🗳 Projected Vote Share

45.03%

NDA

38.50%

Mahagathbandhan

8.61%

Jan Suraj Party

7.86%

Others/Independents

Seat range and vote share are estimates based on CNX Exit Poll 2025. Margin of error ±3%.

🤖 AI Smart Analysis

AI-POWERED INSIGHTS

📊 Dominant NDA Sweep: With a projected 150–170 seats out of 243, NDA comfortably crosses the 122-seat majority mark. The seat-to-vote ratio signals strategic consolidation across OBC, EBC, and upper-caste blocs.
📉 MGB Fragmentation Effect: Mahagathbandhan's 38.5% vote share translating to only 70–90 seats reveals severe seat-vote inefficiency — a symptom of internal friction and split anti-incumbency votes.
🌱 JSP: Vote Bank Without Seats: JSP's 8.61% vote share producing near-zero seats illustrates the first-past-the-post penalty for new entrants. This vote bank in 30–40 constituencies may act as a future kingmaker.
👩 Women Voter Swing: Rural female turnout surged, with exit data showing NDA leading women voters 58:34 over MGB — a decisive gender gap that neutralised the Yadav-Muslim consolidation strategy.
🗺️ Regional Variance: NDA dominates north Bihar and Seemanchal fringe; MGB retains pockets of central Bihar. ~38 competitive seats concentrated in Muzaffarpur, Bhagalpur, and Patna rural belts.
🔮 Coalition Stability Outlook: A comfortable NDA majority reduces intra-coalition bargaining pressure. JD(U)'s projected 70+ seats restores Nitish Kumar's leverage, making a stable 5-year government highly probable.

📈 Visual Analysis

View as:

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NDA projected seats

Majority mark: 122

View as:

Seat Share Distribution

NDA

160 seats

65.8%

Mahagathbandhan

80 seats

32.9%

Jan Suraj Party

1 seats

0.4%

Others

2 seats

0.8%

Vote Share Distribution

NDA

45.03%

Mahagathbandhan

38.50%

Jan Suraj Party

8.61%

Others/Independents

7.86%

NDA

160

150 - 170 seats

45.03%

Vote Share

✓ Majority

Mahagathbandhan

70 - 90 seats

38.50%

Vote Share

Below Mark

Jan Suraj Party

00 - 02 seats

8.61%

Vote Share

Below Mark

Others

01 - 03 seats

7.86%

Vote Share

Below Mark

Alliance / Party	Seat Range	Seat Avg	Distribution	Vote Share	Status
NDA	150 - 170	160	65.8%	45.03%	✓ Majority
Mahagathbandhan	70 - 90	80	32.9%	38.50%	Below Mark
Jan Suraj Party	00 - 02	1	0.4%	8.61%	Below Mark
Others	01 - 03	2	0.8%	7.86%	Below Mark

🔍 Key Findings

NDA on course for a landslide: CNX Exit Poll projects a decisive NDA victory driven by the remarkable comeback of Nitish Kumar's JD(U) which regained voter trust across Bihar.
MMY — Mahila, Migrant, and Youth defined Bihar 2025. These voter groups emerged as key factors, with women and young voters beyond the Yadav and Muslim communities driving the mandate toward the NDA.
Rural women reshaped the vote: Female voters in rural and semi-urban regions strongly supported the NDA, citing satisfaction with welfare schemes and the liquor prohibition policy.
Caste arithmetic favors NDA: CNX findings show NDA now represents Bihar's broadest social coalition — OBC, EBC, SC, and upper-caste voters — effectively making it the real Mahagathbandhan in caste arithmetic.
RJD's job promise lacked credibility: The RJD's flagship 'Har Ghar Naukri Yojna' failed to convince voters, who chose to reward NDA's governance record instead.
Mahagathbandhan weakened by internal friction: Seat-sharing disagreements and weak coordination among RJD, INC, Left, and VIP reduced alliance effectiveness.
Jan Suraj finds a modest foothold: Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj Party made limited but visible gains among first-time, migrant and urban voters.

🔬 Methodology

Survey Conducted by: CNX, India's top election survey agency.

Survey Type: Face-to-face exit poll interviews conducted immediately after voting at polling booths.

Total Sample Size: 72,900 respondents — 300 samples from each of the 243 Assembly constituencies.

Sampling Method: Multi-stage stratified random sampling ensuring balanced representation of gender, age, caste, and region.

Data Collection Platform: CNX Survey Platform — globally trusted system with real-time data validation and double-verification.

Survey Period: Conducted during all phases of the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 polling days.

Quality Control: Each interview verified through field audit and digital monitoring.

Data Weighting: Applied to match Bihar's demographic composition for accurate state-level projections.

Margin of Error: ±3%.

⚠ Survey Disclaimer: survey results reflect voter trends and may differ from official results announced by the Election Commission of India.

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Maharashtra Exit Poll 2024

Maharashtra · 2024 · 288 Total Seats · Majority 145

CNX Exit Poll

🏛 Projected Seats · 288 Total | Majority 145

150 - 170

Mahayuti

100 - 120

MVA

03 - 08

MNS/Small

05 - 15

Others

Seat Distribution Majority: 145 seats

Mahayuti (150 - 170)

MVA (100 - 120)

MNS/Small (03 - 08)

Others (05 - 15)

Mahayuti = BJP + Shiv Sena (Shinde) + NCP (Ajit Pawar). MVA = INC + Shiv Sena (UBT) + NCP (Sharad Pawar).

🗳 Projected Vote Share

43.20%

Mahayuti

39.80%

MVA

4.50%

MNS/Small

12.50%

Others

Seat range and vote share are estimates based on CNX Exit Poll 2024. Margin of error ±3%.

🤖 AI Smart Analysis

AI-POWERED INSIGHTS

📊 Mahayuti's Welfare Dividend: The Ladki Bahin scheme converted welfare satisfaction into votes. Women's swing of ~7 points vs 2019 explains nearly 30 extra seats for Mahayuti beyond base expectations.
📉 MVA Vote-to-Seat Gap: MVA's near 40% vote share yielding only 100–120 seats reflects poor geographical spread. Their vote is concentrated in Mumbai and Konkan, depressing seat returns.
⚖️ Maratha Factor Diluted: Despite Manoj Jarange-Patil's agitation, Maratha community votes split across alliances. The OBC counter-consolidation for Mahayuti effectively cancelled out the Maratha swing.
🏙️ Urban-Rural Divide Sharper: Rural Maharashtra voted decisively for Mahayuti, while urban pockets — especially Mumbai South — remained competitive, mirroring national 2024 Lok Sabha patterns.
🔄 NCP Split's Net Effect: The NCP split cost MVA more than Mahayuti. Sharad Pawar's NCP underperformed 2019 benchmarks in western Maharashtra, handing Ajit Pawar's faction strategic wins.
🔮 Government Formation: A Mahayuti majority points to Devendra Fadnavis as CM frontrunner. Shinde faction seat tally will determine whether the CM post rotates or BJP claims it outright.

📈 Visual Analysis

View as:

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Mahayuti projected seats

Majority mark: 145

View as:

Seat Share Distribution

Mahayuti

160 seats

55.6%

MVA

110 seats

38.2%

MNS/Small

5 seats

1.7%

Others

13 seats

4.5%

Vote Share Distribution

Mahayuti

43.20%

MVA

39.80%

MNS/Small

4.50%

Others

12.50%

Mahayuti

160

150 - 170 seats

43.20%

Vote Share

✓ Majority

MVA

110

100 - 120 seats

39.80%

Vote Share

Below Mark

MNS/Small

03 - 08 seats

4.50%

Vote Share

Below Mark

Others

05 - 15 seats

12.50%

Vote Share

Below Mark

Alliance / Party	Seat Range	Seat Avg	Distribution	Vote Share	Status
Mahayuti	150 - 170	160	55.6%	43.20%	✓ Majority
MVA	100 - 120	110	38.2%	39.80%	Below Mark
MNS/Small	03 - 08	5	1.7%	4.50%	Below Mark
Others	05 - 15	13	4.5%	12.50%	Below Mark

🔍 Key Findings

Mahayuti poised for strong comeback: CNX projects the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde)-NCP (Ajit) alliance on course for a clear majority, reversing their Lok Sabha setback.
Ladki Bahin scheme decisive: The Mukhyamantri Ladki Bahin Yojana produced a significant pro-Mahayuti swing among women voters in Vidarbha and Marathwada.
MVA underperforms despite enthusiasm: Despite high rally attendance, MVA fell short due to candidate selection errors and seat-sharing delays.
OBC consolidation backs Mahayuti: OBC communities swung decisively toward the ruling alliance, neutralising Maratha agitation impact.
Urban Mumbai holds for MVA: Mumbai city constituencies remain competitive with MVA retaining its urban middle-class and minority vote bank.
Ajit Pawar stabilises NCP vote: Ajit Pawar's NCP retained its western Maharashtra stronghold, contributing critical seats to the Mahayuti tally.

🔬 Methodology

Survey Conducted by: CNX, India's top election survey agency.

Survey Type: Face-to-face exit poll interviews at polling booths.

Total Sample Size: 86,400 respondents — 300 samples from each of the 288 Assembly constituencies.

Sampling Method: Multi-stage stratified random sampling ensuring balanced representation of gender, age, caste, and region.

Data Collection Platform: CNX Survey Platform with real-time data validation and double-verification.

Survey Period: Conducted on Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024 polling day.

Margin of Error: ±3%.

⚠ Survey Disclaimer: survey results reflect voter trends and may differ from official results announced by the Election Commission of India.

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Jharkhand Exit Poll 2024

Jharkhand · 2024 · 81 Total Seats · Majority 41

CNX Exit Poll

🏛 Projected Seats · 81 Total | Majority 41

42 - 50

JMM-INDIA

28 - 35

NDA

02 - 06

Others/Ind

Seat Distribution Majority: 41 seats

JMM-INDIA (42 - 50)

NDA (28 - 35)

Others/Ind (02 - 06)

JMM-INDIA includes JMM, INC, RJD and allies. NDA includes BJP, AJSU, JD(U) and allies.

🗳 Projected Vote Share

43.60%

JMM-INDIA

40.20%

NDA

16.20%

Others/Ind

Seat range and vote share are estimates based on CNX Exit Poll 2024. Margin of error ±3%.

🤖 AI Smart Analysis

AI-POWERED INSIGHTS

🌿 Tribal Loyalty Holds: JMM's tribal vote retention of 75–80% in ST-reserved constituencies proved decisive. CNX data shows sympathy wave post-Soren arrest added ~3–4% to JMM's vote share in these seats.
🔴 NDA's Urban Surge Falls Short: BJP's recovery in Dhanbad, Bokaro, and Hazaribagh was real but geographically insufficient. Urban seats alone cannot compensate for tribal belt losses in Jharkhand's seat arithmetic.
🤝 INDIA Bloc Coordination Gaps: Congress and RJD underperformance within the INDIA alliance prevented a more comfortable majority. Internal seat-sharing disputes caused vote splitting in 12–15 constituencies.
📌 Swing Seats: 10 Decide All: CNX identifies 10 constituencies where the margin is projected under 2,000 votes. Results in Borio, Litipara, and Simaria could determine whether INDIA crosses 41.
🏛️ Governance vs Identity: Voters split sharply: tribal identity and land rights drove JMM support, while development and infrastructure gaps drove NDA support — a rural identity vs urban aspiration divide.
🔮 Soren Return Most Likely: If JMM-INDIA crosses 41, Hemant Soren is the near-certain CM. A hung assembly would trigger significant independent and small-party horse-trading.

📈 Visual Analysis

View as:

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JMM-INDIA projected seats

Majority mark: 41

View as:

Seat Share Distribution

JMM-INDIA

46 seats

56.8%

NDA

31 seats

38.3%

Others/Ind

4 seats

4.9%

Vote Share Distribution

JMM-INDIA

43.60%

NDA

40.20%

Others/Ind

16.20%

JMM-INDIA

42 - 50 seats

43.60%

Vote Share

✓ Majority

NDA

28 - 35 seats

40.20%

Vote Share

Below Mark

Others/Ind

02 - 06 seats

16.20%

Vote Share

Below Mark

Alliance / Party	Seat Range	Seat Avg	Distribution	Vote Share	Status
JMM-INDIA	42 - 50	46	56.8%	43.60%	✓ Majority
NDA	28 - 35	31	38.3%	40.20%	Below Mark
Others/Ind	02 - 06	4	4.9%	16.20%	Below Mark

🔍 Key Findings

JMM-led INDIA bloc projects narrow majority: CNX projects the Hemant Soren-led INDIA alliance on course to retain power, though with a tighter majority than 2019.
Tribal voter loyalty anchors JMM: ST communities in Kolhan, Santhal Pargana, and North Chhota Nagpur stayed firmly with JMM, providing a floor of 25–30 seats.
NDA gains in non-tribal belts: BJP recovered strongly in Palamu, Hazaribagh, and Dhanbad districts through local development promises.
Soren's personal image a key factor: CM Hemant Soren's arrest and release generated sympathy votes consolidating the tribal base beyond normal JMM support.
Congress underperforms within INDIA bloc: Congress seats underperformed due to weak candidate selection in urban and semi-urban seats.
Infiltration issue cut both ways: BJP's campaign around illegal immigration resonated in border districts but failed in core JMM tribal zones.

🔬 Methodology

Survey Conducted by: CNX, India's top election survey agency.

Survey Type: Face-to-face exit poll interviews at polling booths.

Total Sample Size: 24,300 respondents — 300 samples from each of the 81 Assembly constituencies.

Sampling Method: Multi-stage stratified random sampling with tribal/non-tribal stratification.

Survey Period: Conducted during all phases of Jharkhand Assembly Election 2024.

Margin of Error: ±3%.

⚠ Survey Disclaimer: survey results reflect voter trends and may differ from official results announced by the Election Commission of India.

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