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Bihar Exit Poll 2025
Bihar · 2025 · 243 Total Seats · Majority 122
CNX Exit Poll
🏛 Projected Seats · 243 Total | Majority 122
150 - 170
NDA
70 - 90
Mahagathbandhan
00 - 02
Jan Suraj Party
01 - 03
Others
Seat DistributionMajority: 122 seats
NDA(150 - 170)
Mahagathbandhan(70 - 90)
Jan Suraj Party(00 - 02)
Others(01 - 03)
NDA includes BJP, JD(U), LJP (Ram Vilas) and smaller allies. Mahagathbandhan includes RJD, INC, VIP, Left parties.
🗳 Projected Vote Share
45.03%
NDA
38.50%
Mahagathbandhan
8.61%
Jan Suraj Party
7.86%
Others/Independents
Seat range and vote share are estimates based on CNX Exit Poll 2025. Margin of error ±3%.
🤖 AI Smart Analysis
AI-POWERED INSIGHTS
📊 Dominant NDA Sweep:
With a projected 150–170 seats out of 243, NDA comfortably crosses the 122-seat majority mark. The seat-to-vote ratio signals strategic consolidation across OBC, EBC, and upper-caste blocs.
📉 MGB Fragmentation Effect:
Mahagathbandhan's 38.5% vote share translating to only 70–90 seats reveals severe seat-vote inefficiency — a symptom of internal friction and split anti-incumbency votes.
🌱 JSP: Vote Bank Without Seats:
JSP's 8.61% vote share producing near-zero seats illustrates the first-past-the-post penalty for new entrants. This vote bank in 30–40 constituencies may act as a future kingmaker.
👩 Women Voter Swing:
Rural female turnout surged, with exit data showing NDA leading women voters 58:34 over MGB — a decisive gender gap that neutralised the Yadav-Muslim consolidation strategy.
🗺️ Regional Variance:
NDA dominates north Bihar and Seemanchal fringe; MGB retains pockets of central Bihar. ~38 competitive seats concentrated in Muzaffarpur, Bhagalpur, and Patna rural belts.
🔮 Coalition Stability Outlook:
A comfortable NDA majority reduces intra-coalition bargaining pressure. JD(U)'s projected 70+ seats restores Nitish Kumar's leverage, making a stable 5-year government highly probable.
📈 Visual Analysis
—
NDA projected seats
Majority mark: 122
Seat Share Distribution
NDA
160 seats
65.8%
Mahagathbandhan
80 seats
32.9%
Jan Suraj Party
1 seats
0.4%
Others
2 seats
0.8%
Vote Share Distribution
NDA
45.03%
45.03%
Mahagathbandhan
38.50%
38.50%
Jan Suraj Party
8.61%
8.61%
Others/Independents
7.86%
7.86%
NDA
160
150 - 170 seats
45.03%
Vote Share
✓ Majority
Mahagathbandhan
80
70 - 90 seats
38.50%
Vote Share
Below Mark
Jan Suraj Party
1
00 - 02 seats
8.61%
Vote Share
Below Mark
Others
2
01 - 03 seats
7.86%
Vote Share
Below Mark
Alliance / Party
Seat Range
Seat Avg
Distribution
Vote Share
Status
NDA
150 - 170
160
65.8%
45.03%
✓ Majority
Mahagathbandhan
70 - 90
80
32.9%
38.50%
Below Mark
Jan Suraj Party
00 - 02
1
0.4%
8.61%
Below Mark
Others
01 - 03
2
0.8%
7.86%
Below Mark
🔍 Key Findings
NDA on course for a landslide: CNX Exit Poll projects a decisive NDA victory driven by the remarkable comeback of Nitish Kumar's JD(U) which regained voter trust across Bihar.
MMY — Mahila, Migrant, and Youth defined Bihar 2025. These voter groups emerged as key factors, with women and young voters beyond the Yadav and Muslim communities driving the mandate toward the NDA.
Rural women reshaped the vote: Female voters in rural and semi-urban regions strongly supported the NDA, citing satisfaction with welfare schemes and the liquor prohibition policy.
Caste arithmetic favors NDA: CNX findings show NDA now represents Bihar's broadest social coalition — OBC, EBC, SC, and upper-caste voters — effectively making it the real Mahagathbandhan in caste arithmetic.
RJD's job promise lacked credibility: The RJD's flagship 'Har Ghar Naukri Yojna' failed to convince voters, who chose to reward NDA's governance record instead.
Mahagathbandhan weakened by internal friction: Seat-sharing disagreements and weak coordination among RJD, INC, Left, and VIP reduced alliance effectiveness.
Jan Suraj finds a modest foothold: Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj Party made limited but visible gains among first-time, migrant and urban voters.
🔬 Methodology
Survey Conducted by:CNX, India's top election survey agency.
Survey Type:Face-to-face exit poll interviews conducted immediately after voting at polling booths.
Total Sample Size:72,900 respondents — 300 samples from each of the 243 Assembly constituencies.
Sampling Method:Multi-stage stratified random sampling ensuring balanced representation of gender, age, caste, and region.
Data Collection Platform:CNX Survey Platform — globally trusted system with real-time data validation and double-verification.
Survey Period:Conducted during all phases of the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 polling days.
Quality Control:Each interview verified through field audit and digital monitoring.
Data Weighting:Applied to match Bihar's demographic composition for accurate state-level projections.
Margin of Error:±3%.
⚠ Survey Disclaimer: survey results reflect voter trends and may differ from official results announced by the Election Commission of India.
Seat ranges are CNX Datalab projections as published in the CNX Delhi exit poll report; charts use the midpoint of each range.
🗳 Projected Vote Share
49.05%
BJP
41.52%
AAP
5.37%
INC
4.06%
Other
Vote share predictions as per the CNX Exit Poll report for the Delhi Assembly Elections 2025.
🤖 AI Smart Analysis
AI-POWERED INSIGHTS
📊 BJP Vote-Share Lead:
BJP is projected at 49.05% against AAP at 41.52%, a lead of 7.53 percentage points, with the projected seat range of 49–61 well above the 36-seat majority mark.
🎯 Landslide Edge in FPTP:
A 5–7% lead usually results in a landslide in first-past-the-post systems, which gives BJP a clear winning edge in most constituencies.
🗺️ AAP's Concentrated Vote:
AAP may win Muslim-majority seats by huge margins, but this concentration can further decrease its vote share in the remaining seats, making BJP stronger there.
🏛️ INC and Others Marginal:
INC is projected at 5.37% and Others at 4.06% of the vote, with 0–1 and 0 seats respectively, so the contest is largely a two-way fight between BJP and AAP.
📈 Visual Analysis
—
BJP projected seats
Majority mark: 36
Seat Share Distribution
BJP
55 seats
78.6%
AAP
15 seats
21.4%
INC
0 seats
0%
Other
0 seats
0%
Vote Share Distribution
BJP
49.05%
49.05%
AAP
41.52%
41.52%
INC
5.37%
5.37%
Other
4.06%
4.06%
BJP
55
49 - 61 seats
49.05%
Vote Share
✓ Majority
AAP
15
10 - 19 seats
41.52%
Vote Share
Below Mark
INC
0
00 - 01 seats
5.37%
Vote Share
Below Mark
Other
0
00 - 00 seats
4.06%
Vote Share
Below Mark
Alliance / Party
Seat Range
Seat Avg
Distribution
Vote Share
Status
BJP
49 - 61
55
78.6%
49.05%
✓ Majority
AAP
10 - 19
15
21.4%
41.52%
Below Mark
INC
00 - 01
0
0%
5.37%
Below Mark
Other
00 - 00
0
0%
4.06%
Below Mark
🔍 Key Findings
AAP's concentrated dominance in Muslim seats means that in those seats, it may win with huge margins. However, this will further decrease its vote share in the remaining seats, making BJP stronger there.
With a 7.53% lead over AAP, BJP has a clear winning edge in most constituencies, as a 5-7% leads usually results in a landslide in FPTP systems.
🔬 Methodology
Survey Conducted by:CNX Datalab.
Survey Type:Exit poll for the Delhi Assembly Elections 2025.
Seat Projections:Ranges as published in the CNX Delhi exit poll report; charts use the midpoint of each range.
⚠ Survey Disclaimer: survey results reflect voter trends and may differ from official results announced by the Election Commission of India.
Seat range and vote share are estimates based on CNX Exit Poll 2024. Margin of error ±3%.
🤖 AI Smart Analysis
AI-POWERED INSIGHTS
📊 Mahayuti's Welfare Dividend:
The Ladki Bahin scheme converted welfare satisfaction into votes. Women's swing of ~7 points vs 2019 explains nearly 30 extra seats for Mahayuti beyond base expectations.
📉 MVA Vote-to-Seat Gap:
MVA's near 40% vote share yielding only 100–120 seats reflects poor geographical spread. Their vote is concentrated in Mumbai and Konkan, depressing seat returns.
⚖️ Maratha Factor Diluted:
Despite Manoj Jarange-Patil's agitation, Maratha community votes split across alliances. The OBC counter-consolidation for Mahayuti effectively cancelled out the Maratha swing.
🏙️ Urban-Rural Divide Sharper:
Rural Maharashtra voted decisively for Mahayuti, while urban pockets — especially Mumbai South — remained competitive, mirroring national 2024 Lok Sabha patterns.
🔄 NCP Split's Net Effect:
The NCP split cost MVA more than Mahayuti. Sharad Pawar's NCP underperformed 2019 benchmarks in western Maharashtra, handing Ajit Pawar's faction strategic wins.
🔮 Government Formation:
A Mahayuti majority points to Devendra Fadnavis as CM frontrunner. Shinde faction seat tally will determine whether the CM post rotates or BJP claims it outright.
📈 Visual Analysis
—
Mahayuti projected seats
Majority mark: 145
Seat Share Distribution
Mahayuti
160 seats
55.6%
MVA
110 seats
38.2%
MNS/Small
5 seats
1.7%
Others
13 seats
4.5%
Vote Share Distribution
Mahayuti
43.20%
43.20%
MVA
39.80%
39.80%
MNS/Small
4.50%
4.50%
Others
12.50%
12.50%
Mahayuti
160
150 - 170 seats
43.20%
Vote Share
✓ Majority
MVA
110
100 - 120 seats
39.80%
Vote Share
Below Mark
MNS/Small
5
03 - 08 seats
4.50%
Vote Share
Below Mark
Others
13
05 - 15 seats
12.50%
Vote Share
Below Mark
Alliance / Party
Seat Range
Seat Avg
Distribution
Vote Share
Status
Mahayuti
150 - 170
160
55.6%
43.20%
✓ Majority
MVA
100 - 120
110
38.2%
39.80%
Below Mark
MNS/Small
03 - 08
5
1.7%
4.50%
Below Mark
Others
05 - 15
13
4.5%
12.50%
Below Mark
🔍 Key Findings
Mahayuti poised for strong comeback: CNX projects the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde)-NCP (Ajit) alliance on course for a clear majority, reversing their Lok Sabha setback.
Ladki Bahin scheme decisive: The Mukhyamantri Ladki Bahin Yojana produced a significant pro-Mahayuti swing among women voters in Vidarbha and Marathwada.
MVA underperforms despite enthusiasm: Despite high rally attendance, MVA fell short due to candidate selection errors and seat-sharing delays.
JMM-INDIA includes JMM, INC, RJD and allies. NDA includes BJP, AJSU, JD(U) and allies.
🗳 Projected Vote Share
43.60%
JMM-INDIA
40.20%
NDA
16.20%
Others/Ind
Seat range and vote share are estimates based on CNX Exit Poll 2024. Margin of error ±3%.
🤖 AI Smart Analysis
AI-POWERED INSIGHTS
🌿 Tribal Loyalty Holds:
JMM's tribal vote retention of 75–80% in ST-reserved constituencies proved decisive. CNX data shows sympathy wave post-Soren arrest added ~3–4% to JMM's vote share in these seats.
🔴 NDA's Urban Surge Falls Short:
BJP's recovery in Dhanbad, Bokaro, and Hazaribagh was real but geographically insufficient. Urban seats alone cannot compensate for tribal belt losses in Jharkhand's seat arithmetic.
🤝 INDIA Bloc Coordination Gaps:
Congress and RJD underperformance within the INDIA alliance prevented a more comfortable majority. Internal seat-sharing disputes caused vote splitting in 12–15 constituencies.
📌 Swing Seats: 10 Decide All:
CNX identifies 10 constituencies where the margin is projected under 2,000 votes. Results in Borio, Litipara, and Simaria could determine whether INDIA crosses 41.
🏛️ Governance vs Identity:
Voters split sharply: tribal identity and land rights drove JMM support, while development and infrastructure gaps drove NDA support — a rural identity vs urban aspiration divide.
🔮 Soren Return Most Likely:
If JMM-INDIA crosses 41, Hemant Soren is the near-certain CM. A hung assembly would trigger significant independent and small-party horse-trading.
📈 Visual Analysis
—
JMM-INDIA projected seats
Majority mark: 41
Seat Share Distribution
JMM-INDIA
46 seats
56.8%
NDA
31 seats
38.3%
Others/Ind
4 seats
4.9%
Vote Share Distribution
JMM-INDIA
43.60%
43.60%
NDA
40.20%
40.20%
Others/Ind
16.20%
16.20%
JMM-INDIA
46
42 - 50 seats
43.60%
Vote Share
✓ Majority
NDA
31
28 - 35 seats
40.20%
Vote Share
Below Mark
Others/Ind
4
02 - 06 seats
16.20%
Vote Share
Below Mark
Alliance / Party
Seat Range
Seat Avg
Distribution
Vote Share
Status
JMM-INDIA
42 - 50
46
56.8%
43.60%
✓ Majority
NDA
28 - 35
31
38.3%
40.20%
Below Mark
Others/Ind
02 - 06
4
4.9%
16.20%
Below Mark
🔍 Key Findings
JMM-led INDIA bloc projects narrow majority: CNX projects the Hemant Soren-led INDIA alliance on course to retain power, though with a tighter majority than 2019.
Tribal voter loyalty anchors JMM: ST communities in Kolhan, Santhal Pargana, and North Chhota Nagpur stayed firmly with JMM, providing a floor of 25–30 seats.
NDA gains in non-tribal belts: BJP recovered strongly in Palamu, Hazaribagh, and Dhanbad districts through local development promises.
Soren's personal image a key factor: CM Hemant Soren's arrest and release generated sympathy votes consolidating the tribal base beyond normal JMM support.
Congress underperforms within INDIA bloc: Congress seats underperformed due to weak candidate selection in urban and semi-urban seats.
Infiltration issue cut both ways: BJP's campaign around illegal immigration resonated in border districts but failed in core JMM tribal zones.
🔬 Methodology
Survey Conducted by:CNX, India's top election survey agency.
Survey Type:Face-to-face exit poll interviews at polling booths.
Total Sample Size:24,300 respondents — 300 samples from each of the 81 Assembly constituencies.
Sampling Method:Multi-stage stratified random sampling with tribal/non-tribal stratification.
Survey Period:Conducted during all phases of Jharkhand Assembly Election 2024.
Margin of Error:±3%.
⚠ Survey Disclaimer: survey results reflect voter trends and may differ from official results announced by the Election Commission of India.
